🚗 What will be in Elon Musk's third master plan?
Will it include a goal to replace all physical human labor? And a section on Neuralink could be included, even though Elon Musk didn't mention the brain-machine company beforehand.
The first master plan
Elon Musk's first master plan for Tesla is by now legendary. It had a clear logic, it was simple to understand and extremely hard to achieve – but achieve it they did.
In 2006 he wrote:
So, in short, the master plan is:
Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
They built the Roadster, used that money to build the Model S (and the Model X, the only change from the plan) and used that money to build the Model 3.
The second master plan
Ten years after the first master plan, it was time for Part Deux. Now AI, self-driving cars and robotaxi were the new things.
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
The third master plan
Getting cars to drive themselves and even earn money for their owners is still not a done deal, but in Elon's mind I think it is. He sees a clear path to solving that problem and it's just a matter of hard work and time.
What solving self-driving led Tesla to was artificial intelligence. Musk thought self-driving was a narrow AI problem, but to crack it Tesla had to solve the much broader AI problem of seeing, understanding and interacting with the world. Instead of giving up, that is what Tesla started doing.
If cars can interact with the world around them, Tesla can translate that to other areas, like robots. Enter: The Tesla Bot.
That is why I think AI will be the foundation the third master plan rests on. Robots can come in many different shapes and sizes. If they truly understand the world around them, they will be able to eventually replace all physical human labor. And they will be able to do labor in environments where humans can't or shouldn't work. An abundant of cheap physical labor that can work 24/7 in very harsh conditions will dramatically expand the human economy. Not just on Earth...
Not just Tesla...
Elon Musk gave a big hint of what the master plan would look like in this tweet.
Scaling to extreme size and AI is the least surprising, and a continuation of the first and second master plans. To comprehend how Elon Musk thinks about extreme size, you must understand The Elon Code.
The first part of The Elon Code is to reason down to the atomic level, using first principles thinking. The second part is to reason up from there. The second part can be enormous in its scope, but appears to Musk as rational and not crazy. With this firm conviction, he then sets about realizing it.
It wouldn't surprise me if there is a goal in there to replace all physical human labor. Not that Tesla will do it on their own, but something similar to the company's mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.
But what surprised almost everyone, including me, was the inclusion of SpaceX and The Boring Company. Tesla's master plans have been only about Tesla.
Tesla and SpaceX
This one is pretty obvious. The Tesla Bot could be extremely useful in helping to colonize Mars, and the rest of the solar system.
Tesla and The Boring Company
Musk believes that self-driving cars will dramatically increase the amount of traffic, and his main solution is putting the traffic underground. Will Tesla start buying tunnels from The Boring Company and offer robotaxis in there as a service? Similar to what they are doing now in Las Vegas?
Did he mean Neuralink?
The Musk company missing is Neuralink. Since he mentioned Tesla again, maybe he meant to write Neuralink there. Why include "a section" on Tesla in the Tesla master plan?
"But I will also Include sections about SpaceX, Tesla and The Boring Company."
Musk is concerned about what could happen when we solve Artificial General Intelligence, AGI. Will the machines then get rid of the humans? His solution is Neuralink. Connecting human brains directly to the machines.
Via Neuralink you could be directly connected to one or several Tesla Bots, on Earth, Mars or elsewhere.
Don't bet against Elon
This third master plan will be ridiculously ambitious. And it will be ridiculed for that. But the dumbest thing you could do is bet against Elon. He has shown again and again what he is capable of achieving, and is inspiring millions to follow and help him.
Co-founder & CEO of Warp News
Co-founder & Executive Chairman, Warp Institute
Former Member of Parliament
Check out why I – before the third master plan – thought Tesla would become the world's largest company, ever.